The Dual-Use Digest / June 25, 2025
The Weekly Dual-Use Digest for Entrepreneurs, Investors, and Innovators
Week in Review
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Are we nearing the end of kinetic conflict with Iran, or are we just catching our breath? After POTUS dropped an “F”-bomb on national television while walking to his helicopter, the second ceasefire in less than 12 hours has held long enough for the market to exhale. This uneasy calm feels more like a strategic pause than a resolution. Meanwhile, the U.S. is teeing up new semiconductor restrictions on allies operating in China, pushing Europe closer to digital sovereignty, and igniting fresh tensions with Seoul and Taipei. Across the Atlantic, Germany is now openly toying with a nuclear deterrent of its own. Add in Europe’s looming tariff standoff, and it’s starting to feel like everyone’s hedging against a fraying alliance system.
Back home, the Fed is channeling its inner Zen master—“not yet” on rate cuts—while Wall Street rallies on geopolitical relief and clean energy buzz. Nuclear power is suddenly cool again, thanks to AI’s appetite for energy, with Bill Gates, Sam Altman, and even New York state going all in. Meanwhile, Congress just banned WhatsApp, Anthropic dodged a copyright bullet, and the Navy’s incoming top dog wants better lasers, more autonomy, and less contractor BS. The line between tech, policy, and warfighting keeps dissolving. If you're building the future, don’t just read the headlines, read the map. The terrain is shifting fast.
Here are the news items that caught our eye.
Geopolitics
Trump says he's 'not happy' with Iran and Israel, but insists ceasefire deal is still in effect after initially faltering | Fortune
Summary
President Trump brokered and then re-brokered a “ceasefire” between Israel and Iran, giving us a sense of déjà vu. After a week of offensive action from Israel, U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites (Operation Midnight Hammer) were followed by Iran’s retaliatory missile attack on Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. Now, a fragile, phased ceasefire is in place, though it’s already been tested by missile and drone salvos, prompting debate over just how durable or strategically meaningful it is.
Why We Care
This action–pause–reset loop demonstrates the evolving logic of 21st‑century warfare: military strikes, diplomatic fanfare, media spectacle, repeat. Trump’s swift pivot from bombing to brokering underscores how kinetic action and negotiations are becoming packaged as one seamless foreign policy product. But intel reports suggest that Iran’s nuclear program was only set back months vs being eliminated, so we doubt we’re close to the end of this episode. We may just be at the end of the beginning. The tempo of strategic cycles is accelerating, and resilience in strategy and capabilities now matters more than ever.
U.S. Prepares Action Targeting Allies’ Chip Plants in China - WSJ
Summary
The U.S. is poised to revoke blanket export waivers that have allowed Samsung, SK Hynix, and TSMC to use American semiconductor manufacturing equipment in their Chinese plants, meaning future shipments will require individual licenses or be shut off entirely. Commerce’s Jeffrey Kessler views the move as leveling the export-control playing field, but it risks riling both Beijing and allied capitals in Seoul and Taipei, potentially destabilizing the delicate balance struck in last month’s U.S.–China trade truce.
Why We Care
This isn't just about chips, it could reshape global semiconductor supply chains and accelerate their reorientation away from China. Dual-use tech and defense systems rely heavily on these supply lines; tightening U.S. leverage may give commercial chipmakers and downstream users a reason to diversify sourcing and invest in domestic production. But the diplomatic fallout with key U.S. partners could slow broader semiconductor strategies and open space for China-coated alternatives. For innovators and investors in cutting-edge computing and national security, this could be both a threat and a golden opportunity to build resilient, next-gen ecosystems.
Most Germans want Europe to have its own nuclear umbrella, poll finds | Defense News
Summary
Nearly two-thirds of Germans (64%) now support creating a European nuclear deterrent independent of the U.S. nuclear umbrella, according to a recent Forsa poll. This broad cross-party backing comes as German Chancellor Merz ramps up defense investment with plans to push military spending to 3.5% of GDP while also calling for strategic autonomy in light of rising doubts about America’s reliability.
Why We Care
This isn’t a policy footnote; it’s a very meaningful shift in Europe’s security mindset, all happening while NATO, as a whole, re-evaluates its place in the world this week. German public opinion is now in sync with leaders pushing for a nuclear shield rooted in Europe, which could spark new alliances with France and the UK, not to mention nuclear proliferation. While this mindset shift will drive business for dual-use tech firms, some may find the potential sea change in global mindset troubling. Europe’s first major rearmament since the end of WWII isn’t hypothetical; it’s becoming institutional.
Finance
Mideast Cease-Fire Pushes Stocks Higher and Oil Lower - WSJ
Summary
Markets surged while oil cooled off after Trump brokered a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran, reassuring investors that global energy flows won’t be cut short. Oil plunged about 6 percent to around $64/barrel, reflecting eased supply fears. Equities responded sharply: the S&P 500 jumped 1.1%, the Nasdaq‑100 hit a fresh record, and the Dow climbed 507 points on hopes that diplomacy might slow the escalation in the Middle East.
Why We Care
This rally is more than a reprieve; it’s a real-time stress test of how markets react when geopolitical risk meets diplomacy. Locking that energy artery back open gives breathing room to investors and policymakers. But underneath the optimism, there’s a reckoning: the market is buying the ceasefire narrative, but it's also clear that only a few missed missiles kept supply lines intact. This week is a reminder that geopolitical volatility is a constant, and resilience isn’t optional. Build for the long haul, not just the headline cycle.
Powell emphasizes patience amid Trump pressure in House testimony | The Hill
Summary
Fed Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed that the central bank is in no rush to cut interest rates, pushing any rate reduction to at least September, while closely watching tariff-driven inflation unfolding this summer. Despite jockeying from other Fed officials for possible July easing and mounting pressure from President Trump, Powell emphasized a data-first approach, citing uncertainty around tariffs and a still-strong labor market.
Why We Care
The Fed is basically telling everyone to calm down and quit begging for cheap money. Powell’s “no rush” vibe means higher-for-longer interest rates are still the house rules, even as tariffs, Trump, and global wobbles dial up the pressure. For startups, VCs, and anyone in dual-use land, this is a not-so-gentle reminder: the easy money days are still on pause. Your capital strategy needs to be smart, scrappy, and built for friction—because the Fed’s not blinking until inflation fully taps out.
EU readies retaliatory tariffs to secure better trade deal with Trump | Financial Times
Summary
The EU is preparing retaliatory tariffs in response to Trump’s threat of a 50% tariff on European imports if no deal is reached by July 9. The move signals Europe’s readiness to escalate trade tensions and matches diplomatic pressure with economic leverage.
Why We Care
This is the kind of trade brinkmanship that makes CFOs and supply-chain managers lose sleep, and reformers and entrepreneurs sit up. If tariffs fly, expect corporate budgets to pivot toward cost-absorption strategies, supplier diversification, and operational resilience. For dual-use tech firms and defense contractors, sudden cross-border tariff shifts could upset procurement timelines, funding rounds, and hardware exports, especially at a time when the NATO defense market may be opening up to U.S. companies.
Defense & Policy
US House bans WhatsApp from staff devices | TechCrunch
Summary
The U.S. House of Representatives has officially banned WhatsApp from all government-issued devices, labeling it a "high-risk" app due to concerns about data transparency, lack of stored data encryption, and broader cybersecurity vulnerabilities. In response, staffers were urged to switch to supposedly safer alternatives like Signal, iMessage, FaceTime, Microsoft Teams, and Wickr. Meta strongly pushed back, noting that WhatsApp employs end‑to‑end encryption, arguing it's more secure than several approved apps.
Why We Care
This isn't just an IT memo; it’s a signal flare that cybersecurity now supersedes user convenience in government communications. With Congress already banning apps like TikTok and running tight controls on AI tools, the stance shows tech is increasingly treated as part of the national security infrastructure. For builders in tech, this opens the door for secure messaging tools that meet elite governmental standards. Messaging and comms security just got bumped from baseline hygiene to boardroom-level seriousness.
Anthropic wins ruling on AI training in copyright lawsuit but must face trial on pirated books | AP News
Summary
A federal judge ruled that Anthropic’s training of Claude on legally purchased and digitized books qualifies as "fair use" under U.S. copyright law, describing the process as "quintessentially transformative". However, Anthropic still faces a December trial over allegations it initially downloaded over seven million pirated books from shadow libraries, conduct judged not to be fair use.
Why We Care
This ruling is a legal milestone with serious implications for AI training. AI firms now have a clearer pathway: buy the books, digitize them, and train. But the piracy cloud remains a storm warning, and potential multibillion-dollar fines loom. We just got a rules refresh in the AI arms race, just don’t let copyright policy blow up your strategy.
Trump taps Caudle as Navy's next leader, USMC's Mahoney as joints chiefs No. 2 - Breaking Defense
Summary
President Trump has nominated ADM Daryl Caudle—currently commander of U.S. Fleet Forces Command and a seasoned submariner—to become the next Chief of Naval Operations, replacing interim CNO ADM James Kilby following the 2025 shake-up that removed ADM Lisa Franchetti. Caudle, dubbed the Navy's “honey badger” for his blunt and tenacious approach, is known for pushing industry accountability, advocating faster deployment of unmanned systems and directed-energy weapons, and bringing AI into naval planning. If confirmed by the Senate, he’ll formally join the Joint Chiefs of Staff alongside nominated Vice Chairman Gen. Christopher Mahoney.
Why We Care
This isn’t just a personnel change; it’s a signal that the Navy is doubling down on rapid modernization and forcing contractors to shape up. Caudle’s no-nonsense style (he’s repeatedly called out shipbuilding delays and weapon inefficiencies) sets the stage for faster fielding of autonomy, lasers, and AI systems, especially in the Indo‑Pacific. For dual-use tech firms and defense investors, this appointment may lead to a clearer runway. We can only hope for aggressive procurement, leaner acquisition, and a more innovation-focused Navy. Put bluntly: if you're building future naval tech, Caudle may be your best advocate yet.
Technology
New York governor seeks to build the state’s first new nuclear power plant in decades - WTOP News
Summary
New York Governor Kathy Hochul has directed the state power authority to build the first major new nuclear plant in decades. They are planning an advanced, zero-emission facility of at least 1 GW to support clean-energy goals and grid reliability in upstate New York. Positioned as a strategic reversal from the 2021 Indian Point shutdown, the project taps into renewed bipartisan support and aims to power everything from EVs to tech hubs while leaning on Trump-era regulatory streamlining to speed approvals.
Why We Care
This is more than just local infrastructure. This is a national signal that nuclear power is staging a comeback as both a climate and industrial strategy. For AI, dual-use, and energy-tech innovators, it spells opportunity: advanced reactors, microgrids, supply-chain resilience, and clean energy for data centers and manufacturing. Investors will want to watch regulatory timelines and cost controls closely because Vogtle’s cost overruns in GA are still fresh. But if this project delivers, it could reset the template for U.S. nuclear rollouts across the country.
Bill Gates and Sam Altman’s nuclear groups raise $1bn as investors bet on AI | Financial Times
Summary
Nuclear startups are having a moment—and AI might be the reason why. TerraPower (founded by Bill Gates) just locked in $650M, including a fresh check from Nvidia’s venture arm, while Sam Altman-backed Oklo raised $460M this week to push its small modular reactor (SMR) designs forward. The boom is fueled by tech giants like Google, Meta, and Microsoft, which are racing to secure steady, 24/7 power for data centers supercharged by AI demand. With U.S. electricity consumption projected to spike 25% by 2050, nuclear’s comeback tour is getting the venture and government support it’s been waiting for.
Why We Care
Yes, we did just include another story about nuclear energy! AI might be eating software and rushing to replace all of us, but it’s hungry for kilowatts. The nuclear revival isn’t just green energy hype; it’s a strategic pivot to power the AI arms race. With SMRs racing toward deployment and federal cash on the table, this is a rare dual-use moment: national security meets compute-hungry innovation. If you’re building in AI, defense, energy, or edge infrastructure, this is your bat signal. The game isn't just data anymore; it's energy density, uptime, and geopolitical edge.
European leaders worry they’re too reliant on US tech | TechCrunch
Summary
European leaders are increasingly restless about their dependence on U.S. technology, especially after Trump used executive authority to force Microsoft to suspend the ICC prosecutor’s email account, sparking alarm over potential political interference via American platforms. A growing wave of calls for “digital sovereignty” is propelling government-backed efforts to adopt European and open-source alternatives in messaging, email, cloud services, and more.
Why We Care
This could end up being a falling domino that further separates the U.S. from Europe. When governments start demanding homegrown alternatives, U.S. platforms lose their iron grip on markets, and policy rules start shifting. U.S. tech may be in demand now, but a sequence of missteps could make the competitive landscape a lot more challenging.
Notable VC Deals
Diskover Scoops Up $7.5M Seed Round | VC News
Diskover, a pioneer in enabling enterprises to structure their unstructured data at exabyte scale, has announced the closing of a $7.5 million seed round.